About a third rug within a day
Across 2,662 Solana memecoins people opened on Trenchie with a 24-hour outcome, 31% rugged or collapsed within a day. That's the base rate: before you look at anything else, a coin someone is curious about has roughly a one-in-three chance of being gone by tomorrow.
Pool age matters most
| Main pool age | Rugged within a day |
|---|---|
| Under 1 hour | 83% |
| 1 to 6 hours | 64% |
| 6 to 24 hours | 35% |
| 1 to 3 days | 21% |
| 3 to 7 days | 6% |
| 7 to 30 days | 2% |
| Over 30 days | 5% |
Sample of 1,876 coins, October 21, 2026. That's why Trenchie treats a pool under six hours old as high risk on its own: in the later sample, coins in that band rugged 74% of the time.
Fresh pump.fun graduates are the riskiest stretch
Coins that graduated from pump.fun less than six hours earlier rugged 67% of the time (135 coins). Six to 24 hours after graduating: 36%. More than a day: 3%. The first hours after migration, when the bonding-curve buyers can finally sell into a real pool, are where most of the damage happens.
Thin, real liquidity is worse than either extreme
By real liquidity (the SOL side, not the claimed total), $30K to $100K was the worst band at 54% rugged: mostly fresh graduates. $300K and up: 12%.
What the verdicts did
Trenchie's four verdicts, re-scored on the record: No big flags 6.5% rugged, Mixed 34%, Caution 38%, High risk 56%. The flags are weighted by how often each one actually came before a rug, and the weights are re-tuned as the record grows. Some checks that sound scary turned out to rug at the base rate (thin liquidity on its own, a high top-10 share on its own) and were demoted to cautions.
What no flag catches
Runners. Of the coins in the record, 2.8% doubled within a day, and no single flag picks them out in advance. A risk report tells you what's likely to go wrong; it can't tell you what will moon.
The track record page shows the live numbers, including the coins the verdict got wrong.
Questions people ask
What counts as a rug in this data?
A coin whose price collapsed or whose pool was emptied within 24 hours of the read, by the journal's outcome labels (rugged, gone or dumped). Coins that ran or held are counted separately.
Where does the data come from?
From Trenchie's own verdict journal: one snapshot of the quick read per coin per six hours, every time someone opens a report, and an automatic re-check 24 and 72 hours later.